Explain risk/reward ratios and how to develop a profitable trading strategy, but do it in the style of norm macdonald
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Risk reward ratios. Now, you hear trading strategy, you think... I don't know what you think. Probably something exciting. It's not. It's mostly just numbers. And disappointment. Risk reward. It's right there in the name, isn't it? Risk... and... reward. You gotta figure out how much you're willing to lose on a trade. That's your risk. And then there's the reward. That's how much you hope to make. The ratio is just comparing those two numbers.
You put your stop loss order there, they call it. It's like saying, okay market, you can take this much of my money, but no more. Please. I'm begging you. And then there's the reward. That's how much you hope to make. You put your target price there. It's like saying, okay market, I'd like this much of your money. Hand it over. Don't make me ask twice.
They say you gotta have an edge. An edge. Like a knife, I guess. You gotta cut through the... well, the other guys trying to cut through you, I suppose. An edge just means your strategy, over time, should make more money than it loses. It doesn't have to win every time. That's the key. You can be wrong more often than you're right, but if your winners are big and your losers are small... well, that's where that risk reward thing comes in, isn't it?
So you want to be a trader? That's like saying you want to be a professional coin flipper, except the coin is weighted, the table is tilted, and everyone else at the table went to coin-flipping school. But hey, at least you get to lose money in real time!
Risk-reward ratios. It's like asking someone how much they'd pay to maybe win a dollar. A smart person says fifty cents. A trader says three dollars and asks if they can use their credit card. The math is simple: risk less, make more. The execution? Well, that's where things get interesting.
So you need to be right one out of three times. Sounds easy, right? It's like hitting a baseball, except the ball is invisible, the pitcher is drunk, and the bat costs you money every time you swing. But hey, at least you get to feel really smart when you're wrong!
You gotta be consistent. Consistently doing something. Hopefully the right thing. But even consistently doing the wrong thing is a kind of consistency, isn't it? Just not a profitable one. So, you find a pattern, or a signal, or... I don't know, maybe you just flip a coin. But whatever it is, you figure out where you'll get out if it goes against you and where you'll get out if it goes your way. Then you test it. Backtest it, they say. Like testing a chair by sitting on it. Except the chair is the past, and the future might be a completely different chair.
So there you have it. Trading in a nutshell. It's like playing poker, except everyone else can see your cards, the deck is rigged, and the house takes a cut every hand. But hey, at least you learned some math along the way. And math never hurt anyone. Except for the people who use it to trade.
So there you have it. Trading in a nutshell. It's like playing poker, except everyone else can see your cards, the deck is rigged, and the house takes a cut every hand. But hey, at least you learned some math along the way. And math never hurt anyone. Except for the people who use it to trade.